Ventas al por menor: Fuertes resultados en julio Lorena Dominguez, Economista Senior de HSBC México

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- En julio las ventas al por menor registraron un alza de 0.5% en términos ajustados estacionalmente, resultado mayor al esperado, lo que representa una buena señal para el consumo durante la segunda mitad de 2015.

- Detrás de estos buenos resultados se encuentran los niveles bajos de inflación y la mejoría en las cifras de empleo, combinados con un aumento significativo en la entrada de remesas a México, apoyado por la depreciación del peso.

- HSBC estima que el consumo privado crecerá 3.2% en 2015.

HSBC Global Research

Economics - Data Reactions

23 September 2015

Mexico

Retail Sales: Strong in July

In July, retail sales posted a higher-than-expected increase in seasonally adjusted terms, which represents a good sign for consumption in the 2H15. This is consistent with the strong results shown by some leading indicators; in particular, the National Association of Convenience and Department Stores (ANTAD) sales and auto sales. Behind such improvement may be the drop in inflation, the improvement in employment combined with boosting wage remittances in MXN. We keep our view that private consumption will grow 3.2% in 2015.

Facts

In July, retail sales increased 0.5% in seasonally adjusted terms with respect to June. This result came above our and consensus expectations (HSBC: 0.3%; Consensus: 0.3%). On an annual basis, retail sales rose 5.8%, coming above our and consensus expectations (HSBC: 4.2%; Consensus: 4.7%).

Retail sales

Source: INEGI

Implications

In July, retail sales increased for the third month in a row in seasonally adjusted terms, led by healthcare products, hardware articles, food and beverages, textile products and auto-related goods.

The July reading is a positive sign for private consumption in the 2H15. Some leading consumption indicators maintained traction in August: ANTAD total-store and same-store sales increased 8.7% and 5.1% y-o-y, while auto sales increased 7.9% y-o-y during this period. The decline in inflation and stronger job market conditions appear to have improved household disposable income and appear to be behind the positive performance of the retail sector. The rise in the MXN value of remittances of funds by Mexicans residing abroad (reflecting a weaker MXN) will be supportive for consumption over the remainder of the year, we believe.

HSBC forecasts that private consumption will grow by 3.2% in 2015 as a whole.

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